ISTANBUL--Turkey's recent threat to withdraw from an increasingly onerous customs agreement with the European Union appeared to mark yet another low point in Ankara's stuttering effort to join the bloc. But beneath the rhetoric, a series of recent steps from Ankara to reaffirm ties with Brussels signals a soft policy pivot toward Europe as Turkey seeks shelter against increasingly troubling political and economic developments in its region.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan rejected calls by a minister and businessmen to withdraw from the EU customs union negotiated in 1996, which they say crimps Turkey's export competitiveness.
"It's not that easy to say we're angry, and we're out...He who rises in fury reaps damage from his fall. We always have to think strategically," said Mr. Babacan, who also oversees Turkey's economic policy.
The intervention comes after an announcement last week that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Brussels for the first time in three years. That news followed France's move in February to lift a block on Ankara's membership negotiations after years of deadlock, effectively relaunching the EU's strained relationship with Turkey.
To be sure, officials in Brussels and Ankara remain concerned that more than seven years after Turkey's accession talks formally began and with most of the negotiation issues still paralyzed, there may be little time to breathe life into the process. The EU is deeply divided over whether eventually to admit Turkey as a full member. The bloc's attractions for Ankara have, meanwhile, diminished during the euro-zone crisis.
But analysts stress that Ankara's recent effort to bolster ties with the EU after years of strengthening alliances in the Middle East underscored a realization in Ankara that efforts to recalibrate Turkey's foreign and trade policy decisively toward its neighborhood had left the country exposed to economic and political shocks.
"Turkey started seeing the limitations of its diversification policies on both foreign affairs and economics. This had to happen eventually because the expectations would have to face up to the reality. The EU will remain Turkey's top market despite falling demand and will continue to be the top provider of foreign direct investment in Turkey," said Sinan Ulgen, a foreign-policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Turkish diplomat who helped negotiate the 1996 customs agreement.
Despite the renewed effort to reinvigorate the frozen accession talks, Turkish public opinion remains skeptical: overwhelming support to join the EU has plummeted to an all-time low as accession talks ground to a halt over the past three years. Government officials have been quick to blame EU members for blindly blocking Ankara's entry on religious and historic enmity, urging Brussels to focus instead on Turkey's dynamic $786 billion economy as an engine that can help remedy euro-zone woes.
The unpopularity of the EU on the Turkish street has transferred to the political sphere, with Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan repeatedly questioning whether Turkey should remain umbilically linked to the EU's economy.
"This has now become an agreement of servitude. At this point, Turkey is, unfortunately, getting shafted by the customs agreement that I had also supported in the past," Mr. Caglayan said, adding that Ankara should negotiate new terms, or pull out of the deal with the EU, Turkey's biggest trading partner.
For many Turks, the Sunday comments of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu sum up Turkey's stance: "If the EU gives us passage, we'll walk on that path as per our strategic goals. If it blocks our path, they go their way, we go our way."
Write to Emre Peker at emre.peker@dowjones.com
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan rejected calls by a minister and businessmen to withdraw from the EU customs union negotiated in 1996, which they say crimps Turkey's export competitiveness.
"It's not that easy to say we're angry, and we're out...He who rises in fury reaps damage from his fall. We always have to think strategically," said Mr. Babacan, who also oversees Turkey's economic policy.
The intervention comes after an announcement last week that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Brussels for the first time in three years. That news followed France's move in February to lift a block on Ankara's membership negotiations after years of deadlock, effectively relaunching the EU's strained relationship with Turkey.
To be sure, officials in Brussels and Ankara remain concerned that more than seven years after Turkey's accession talks formally began and with most of the negotiation issues still paralyzed, there may be little time to breathe life into the process. The EU is deeply divided over whether eventually to admit Turkey as a full member. The bloc's attractions for Ankara have, meanwhile, diminished during the euro-zone crisis.
But analysts stress that Ankara's recent effort to bolster ties with the EU after years of strengthening alliances in the Middle East underscored a realization in Ankara that efforts to recalibrate Turkey's foreign and trade policy decisively toward its neighborhood had left the country exposed to economic and political shocks.
"Turkey started seeing the limitations of its diversification policies on both foreign affairs and economics. This had to happen eventually because the expectations would have to face up to the reality. The EU will remain Turkey's top market despite falling demand and will continue to be the top provider of foreign direct investment in Turkey," said Sinan Ulgen, a foreign-policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Turkish diplomat who helped negotiate the 1996 customs agreement.
Despite the renewed effort to reinvigorate the frozen accession talks, Turkish public opinion remains skeptical: overwhelming support to join the EU has plummeted to an all-time low as accession talks ground to a halt over the past three years. Government officials have been quick to blame EU members for blindly blocking Ankara's entry on religious and historic enmity, urging Brussels to focus instead on Turkey's dynamic $786 billion economy as an engine that can help remedy euro-zone woes.
The unpopularity of the EU on the Turkish street has transferred to the political sphere, with Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan repeatedly questioning whether Turkey should remain umbilically linked to the EU's economy.
"This has now become an agreement of servitude. At this point, Turkey is, unfortunately, getting shafted by the customs agreement that I had also supported in the past," Mr. Caglayan said, adding that Ankara should negotiate new terms, or pull out of the deal with the EU, Turkey's biggest trading partner.
For many Turks, the Sunday comments of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu sum up Turkey's stance: "If the EU gives us passage, we'll walk on that path as per our strategic goals. If it blocks our path, they go their way, we go our way."
Write to Emre Peker at emre.peker@dowjones.com
