Consumer Price Index (Month-On-Month changes):
Mar Feb Jan Mar12 12-Month
Forecast: +0.72% +0.54% +0.33% +0.10% +4.24%
Actual: - +0.49% +0.40% +0.06% -
By Juan Montes
MEXICO CITY--Mexico's annual inflation likely hit a five-month high in March, breaking through the central bank's 4% target ceiling.
Twelve-month inflation measured by the consumer price index is forecast to rise to 4.24% at the end of March, up from 3.55% at the end of the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Dow Jones poll of 10 economists. That would be the highest level since the end of October.
Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.72% in March, likely affected by higher volatile agricultural prices and moderate increases in transportation and tourist services due to the Easter Week.
"Adverse weather conditions in late February and early March hit agriculture crops," said Bank of America Merrill-Lynch's chief MexicoCarlos Capistran.
The national statistics agency is due to report inflation data for the period Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT.
Mexico's central bank has said the recent uptick in prices is expected to be temporary, mainly influenced by a statistical effect after small increases a year ago, and will start to slow down from April, converging by year-end toward the 3% permanent target.
Higher consumer prices coincide with the rate cut announced by the Bank of Mexico on March 8. The bank justified the cut in interest rates by 50 basis points to 4%, the first move in nearly four years, by saying that structural inflation is at historic lows and that the move would support economic growth at a time when global prospects are getting darker.
Core CPI, which excludes energy and fresh fruit and vegetables, is expected to have risen 0.36% in March, pushing the annual rate slightly up to 3.1% from 2.96% at the end of February.
Analysts are expecting higher merchandise and services prices, but rises were probably relieved in part by a stronger peso, which makes imports cheaper.
Mar Feb Jan Mar12 12-Month
Forecast: +0.72% +0.54% +0.33% +0.10% +4.24%
Actual: - +0.49% +0.40% +0.06% -
By Juan Montes
MEXICO CITY--Mexico's annual inflation likely hit a five-month high in March, breaking through the central bank's 4% target ceiling.
Twelve-month inflation measured by the consumer price index is forecast to rise to 4.24% at the end of March, up from 3.55% at the end of the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Dow Jones poll of 10 economists. That would be the highest level since the end of October.
Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.72% in March, likely affected by higher volatile agricultural prices and moderate increases in transportation and tourist services due to the Easter Week.
"Adverse weather conditions in late February and early March hit agriculture crops," said Bank of America Merrill-Lynch's chief MexicoCarlos Capistran.
The national statistics agency is due to report inflation data for the period Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT.
Mexico's central bank has said the recent uptick in prices is expected to be temporary, mainly influenced by a statistical effect after small increases a year ago, and will start to slow down from April, converging by year-end toward the 3% permanent target.
Higher consumer prices coincide with the rate cut announced by the Bank of Mexico on March 8. The bank justified the cut in interest rates by 50 basis points to 4%, the first move in nearly four years, by saying that structural inflation is at historic lows and that the move would support economic growth at a time when global prospects are getting darker.
Core CPI, which excludes energy and fresh fruit and vegetables, is expected to have risen 0.36% in March, pushing the annual rate slightly up to 3.1% from 2.96% at the end of February.
Analysts are expecting higher merchandise and services prices, but rises were probably relieved in part by a stronger peso, which makes imports cheaper.
